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FORECASTING AND PLANNING DURING A PANDEMIC: COVID-19 GROWTH RATES, SUPPLY CHAIN DISRUPTIONS, AND GOVERNMENTAL DECISIONS

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FORECASTING AND PLANNING DURING A PANDEMIC: COVID-19 GROWTH RATES, SUPPLY CHAIN DISRUPTIONS, AND GOVERNMENTAL DECISIONS

 

 

a b s t r a c t

Policymakers during COVID-19 operate in uncharted territory and must make tough decisions. Opera- tional Research – the ubiquitous ‘science of better’ – plays a vital role in supporting this decision-making process. To that end, using data from the USA, India, UK, Germany, and Singapore up to mid-April 2020, we provide predictive analytics tools for forecasting and planning during a pandemic. We forecast COVID- 19 growth rates with statistical, epidemiological, machine- and deep-learning models, and a new hybrid forecasting method based on nearest neighbors and clustering. We further model and forecast the excess demand for products and services during the pandemic using auxiliary data (google trends) and simu- lating governmental decisions (lockdown). Our empirical results can immediately help policymakers and planners make better decisions during the ongoing and future pandemics.

Keywords:

Forecasting

COVID-19

Pandemic

Excess demand Lockdown